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Tonight's most-hit lines, ranked by the gap between a player's recent rate and the market's price.
PlayerPropStreakLast 10Hit rateMarketBest priceSave
Tampa Bay RaysTB @ MIL · 8:00 PM ETMoneylineWon 3 straight, +3.3 runs/game67%6 games41%implied+3.8%+135BetMGMMLB model record
Every forecast is written down before the game and graded after. These are the totals, not the highlights.
MLB hits
- Settled
- 19,451 last 90 days
- Model Brier
- 0.203 lower is better
- Market Brier
- 0.201 vig-free price
- When they disagree
- 59% model's side hit · 6,419 lines
The market is slightly sharper overall. Where the two lean different ways by 5+ points, the model's side has hit 59% of the time against 41% for the market's. They agree on 67% of lines.
MLB home runs
- Settled
- 9,628 last 90 days
- Model Brier
- 0.100 lower is better
- Market Brier
- 0.100 vig-free price
- When they disagree
- 86% model's side hit · 3,790 lines
The model edges the market overall. Where the two lean different ways by 5+ points, the model's side has hit 86% of the time against 14% for the market's. They agree on 61% of lines.